<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1561-3003</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Cubana de Higiene y Epidemiología]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. cuba. hig. epidemiol.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1561-3003</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro Nacional de Información de Ciencias MédicasEditorial Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1561-30032023000100013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo bayesiano de series temporales estructurales. Aproximación a la evaluación de impacto de VA-MENGOC-BC®]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian structural time series model. An approach to VA-MENGOC-BC® impact assessment]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García Serrano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yanet]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mirabal Sosa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mayelin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González Mujica]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raúl]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Facultad de Matemática de la Universidad de La Habana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Finlay de Vacunas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>60</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1561-30032023000100013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1561-30032023000100013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1561-30032023000100013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción:  Una nueva intervención de salud pública, como la introducción de una vacuna, implica el monitoreo de indicadores que aseguren una intervención efectiva, y que exista la posibilidad de cuantificar sus beneficios. Obtener estimaciones precisas del impacto de una intervención de salud se considera un desafío importante.  Objetivos:  Estimar el impacto causal de uno de los productos líderes del Instituto Finlay de La Habana: la vacuna cubana registrada y comercializada VA-MENGOC-BC®.  Métodos:  Se seleccionaron datos en los anuarios estadísticos de salud desde 2009 hasta 2017. Se usaron como variable de interés, la tasa de incidencia de la enfermedad meningocócica en Cuba ( 100 000 habitantes y un conjunto de covariables que no se afectaron por la intervención: tasas de incidencia de fiebre tifoidea, de incidencia de tuberculosis, de mortalidad por enfermedades infecciosas (parasitarias e intestinales) todas ( 100 000 habitantes. Se consideró 1989 como año de la intervención. Se aplicó el método bayesiano de series temporales estructurales, que evaluó el impacto causal de la vacunación sostenida con VA-MENGOC-BC® desde 1989 hasta el presente.  Resultados:  Se estimó un impacto causal acumulativo significativo en la reducción de la incidencia de la enfermedad meningocócica. Se verificó que se produjo una disminución de la enfermedad en 97,2 %.  Conclusiones: La aplicación del método de series de tiempo estructural bayesina para estimar el impacto de la vacuna VA-MENGOC-BC®, constituyó una herramienta novedosa para evaluar el contrafactual. Se proporcionó una apreciación del impacto de la vacunación con VA-MENGOC-BC®, una vacuna implementada y reconocida a nivel mundial.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction: A new public health intervention, such as the introduction of a vaccine, implies monitoring the indicators that guarantee its effectiveness, and the possibility of quantifying its benefits. Obtaining accurate estimates of the impact of a health intervention is considered a major challenge.  Objective: To estimate the causal impact of one of the leading products of the Finlay Institute in Havana: the registered and marketed Cuban vaccine VA-MENGOC-BC®.  Methods: Data from the health statistics yearbooks from 2009 to 2017 were selected. The incidence rate of the meningococcal disease in Cuba per 100 000 population and a set of co-variables that were not affected by the intervention, such as incidence rate of typhoid fever, tuberculosis, and fatality cases due to infectious diseases (parasitic or intestinal) per 100 000 population were used as variables of interest. The intervention year was 1989. The Bayesian structural time series model was applied to evaluate the causal impact of the continued vaccination with VA-MENGOC-BC® from 1989 to date.  Results:  A significant cumulative causal impact in reducing the incidence of meningococcal disease was estimated. A decrease of 97.2% in the disease was verified.  Conclusions:  The application of the Bayesian structural time series model to estimate the impact of the vaccine VA-MENGOC-BC® was a novel tool to estimate the counterfactual. It was provided an estimate of the impact of the vaccination with VA-MENGOC-BC®, an implemented and globally well-known vaccine.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[evaluación de impacto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[series temporales estructurales bayesianas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[VA-MENGOC-BC®]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[impact assessment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian structural time series model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[VA-MENGOC-BC®]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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