<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1561-3194</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Ciencias Médicas de Pinar del Río]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev Ciencias Médicas]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1561-3194</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editorial Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1561-31942023000700006</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo predictivo temprano de obesidad infanto-juvenil]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Early predictive model of child and adolescent obesity]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peña-Rodriguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alvaro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Piña-Borrego]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos Enrique]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Silva-Ramos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lázaro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de la Habana Policlínico Docente &#8220;Manuel González Díaz&#8221; ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bahía Honda. Artemisa ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de la Habana. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas de Artemisa. ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Artemisa ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1561-31942023000700006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1561-31942023000700006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1561-31942023000700006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción:  sería útil establecer un modelo de predicción de obesidad infanto-juvenil a través de factores modificables desde los primeros mil días de vida.  Objetivo:  desarrollar un modelo predictivo precoz de obesidad infanto-juvenil.  Métodos:  se realizó un estudio longitudinal, retrospectivo y observacional de casos y controles, en el Policlínico "Manuel González Díaz", período marzo/2021-mayo/2023. Universo constituido por 3091 menores de 19 años (Grupo Básico de Trabajo 2), conformándose una Muestra A [105 menores de dos años (35 casos y 70 controles)] y una Muestra B [(144 adolescentes (72 casos y 72 controles)]. Se identificaron los factores asociados a obesidad, con ellos se elaboró y validó un modelo predictivo precoz de obesidad utilizando métodos como: análisis de regresión logística, prueba de bondad de ajuste de Hosmer y Lemeshow y estimación del Área Bajo la Curva-ROC.  Resultados:  en la Muestra A dos factores se asociaron a obesidad infanto-juvenil: los antecedentes de obesidad materna [OR 3,32 (IC: 1,11-9,88)] y tabaquismo materno [OR 6,15 (IC: 1,07-35,15)], calibración (p=0,1729), ABC-ROC 0,68. Los resultados fueron similares en la Muestra B.  Conclusiones:  los antecedentes de obesidad materna y tabaquismo materno constituyeron factores predictivos de obesidad infanto-juvenil con un ajuste adecuado de la realidad en la muestra A y resultados similares en la muestra B, hecho coherente con que ambos factores consiguen una reducción significativa de la lejanía, por lo que su uso se propone en la práctica clínica para predecir desde los primeros mil días de vida el desarrollo futuro de obesidad infanto-juvenil.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction:  it would be useful to establish a model for predicting child and adolescent obesity through modifiable factors from the first thousand days of life.  Objective:  to develop an early predictive model of child and adolescent obesity.  Methods:  a longitudinal, retrospective and observational case-control study was conducted at the "Manuel González Díaz" Polyclinic, period March/2021-May/2023. Universe, consisting of 3091 children under 19 years of age (Basic Working Group 2), forming a Sample A [105 children under two years of age (35 cases and 70 controls)] and a Sample B [(144 adolescents (72 cases and 72 controls)]. The factors associated with obesity were identified, with them an early predictive model of obesity was developed and validated using methods such as: logistic regression analysis, goodness of fit test of Hosmer and Lemeshow and estimation of the Area Under Curve-ROC.  Results:  in Sample A two factors were associated with childhood and adolescent obesity: history of maternal obesity [OR 3.32 (CI: 1.11-9.88)] and maternal smoking [OR 6.15 (CI: 1.07-35.15)], calibration (p=0.1729), AUC-ROC 0.68. The results were similar in Sample B.  Conclusions:  the history of maternal obesity and maternal smoking were predictive factors of child and adolescent obesity with an adequate adjustment of reality in sample A and similar results in sample B, a fact consistent with the fact that both factors achieve a significant reduction in distance, so its use is proposed in clinical practice to predict from the first thousand days of life the future development of child and adolescent obesity.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[OBESIDAD INFANTIL]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[OBESIDAD MATERNA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[TABAQUISMO]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[PEDIATRIC OBESITY]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MATERNAL, OBESITY]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[TOBACCO USE DISORDER]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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