<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1727-897X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[MediSur]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Medisur]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1727-897X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos, Centro Provincial de Ciencias Médicas, Provincia de Cienfuegos.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1727-897X2021000300377</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La COVID-19 en Cuba. Apuntes para debates sobre métodos estadístico-matemáticos]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19 in Cuba. Notes for debating statistical-mathematical methods]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Seuc Jo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Armando H]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Silva Ayçaguer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Luis Peñalvo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fernández González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lisbeth]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Higiene, Epidemiología y Microbiología  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[La Habana ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Escuela Nacional de Salud Pública  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[La Habana ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto de Medicina Tropical de Amberes  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Amberes ]]></addr-line>
<country>Bélgica</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>377</fpage>
<lpage>391</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1727-897X2021000300377&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1727-897X2021000300377&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1727-897X2021000300377&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La epidemiología y los métodos estadístico-matemáticos asociados a ella son campos que adquieren relevancia a la luz del enfrentamiento a la epidemia por el SARS-CoV-2 en Cuba. Para optimizar los esfuerzos en futuras batallas, que al parecer se avecinan, es necesario analizar críticamente lo que se ha hecho en ese sentido. El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar las insuficiencias en el enfoque epidemiológico y de las técnicas estadístico-matemáticas asociadas, en el tratamiento estadístico del curso de la epidemia de COVID-19. Se realizó una revisión documental, fundamentalmente de revistas médicas cubanas, y en la base de datos Pubmed. Se seleccionaron artículos y reportes que trataron el tema de la COVID-19 desde una perspectiva epidemiológica y/o estadístico-matemática. El uso de técnicas estadístico-matemáticas sin un fundamento epidemiológico adecuado, puede generar falsas expectativas y dificultar la toma de decisiones adecuadas. Esto ocurre, en particular, con modelos que pretenden describir, analizar y predecir, el comportamiento de las curvas de casos activos. Los aspectos discutidos, de corte estadístico-epidemiológico, pueden contribuir modestamente a los necesarios debates, sin los cuales es imposible hacer un balance objetivo de la situación.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Epidemiology and the statistical-mathematical methods associated with it are fields that acquire relevance in light of the confrontation with the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Cuba. To optimize efforts in future battles, it is necessary to critically analyze what has been done in this regard. The objective of this work is to identify the shortcomings in the epidemiological approach and associated statistical-mathematical techniques, in the statistical treatment of the course of the COVID-19 epidemic. A documentary review was carried out, mainly of Cuban medical journals, and in the Pubmed database. Articles and reports were selected that dealt with the subject of COVID-19 from an epidemiological and/or statistical-mathematical perspective. The use of statistical-mathematical techniques without an adequate epidemiological basis can generate false expectations and make it difficult to make adequate decisions. This occurs, in particular, with models that aim to describe, analyze and predict the behavior of the curves of active cases. The issues discussed, of a statistical-epidemiological nature, can contribute modestly to the necessary debates, without which it is impossible to make an objective assessment of the situation.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Infecciones por coronavirus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos estadísticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[epidemiología]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Coronavirus infections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[models, statitiscal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[epidemiology]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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