<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1727-897X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[MediSur]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Medisur]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1727-897X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos, Centro Provincial de Ciencias Médicas, Provincia de Cienfuegos.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1727-897X2022000400683</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estudio estadístico matemático del comportamiento de la COVID-19 en la provincia de Cienfuegos. Cuba]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mathematical Statistical Study of the behavior of COVID-19 in the province of Cienfuegos. Cuba]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Cortés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina Mendieta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Felipe]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santana Justiz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miguel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Iglesias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Miranda Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ridelio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Cienfuegos Carlos Rafael Rodríguez  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cienfuegos ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>20</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>683</fpage>
<lpage>698</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1727-897X2022000400683&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1727-897X2022000400683&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1727-897X2022000400683&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Fundamento:  el mundo y Cuba en los dos últimos años se han visto afectados por la Covid-19. Es de vital importancia para la Salud Pública contar con estudios estadísticos de casos contagiados, ecuaciones de pronósticos y los posibles picos de la enfermedad, con vistas a que se puedan aplicar las medidas oportunas, para combatir la pandemia.  Objetivo: describir análisis estadísticos sobre datos de casos confirmados en la provincia de Cienfuegos, desde marzo del 2020 hasta agosto del 2021.  Métodos: estudio estadístico realizado por el Grupo de Investigación de Matemática Aplicada de la Universidad de Cienfuegos en bases de datos de pacientes confirmados con Covid-19, en los ocho municipios de la provincia de Cienfuegos. Se aplicó estadística descriptiva en los casos confirmados acumulados, la edad, el sexo, las dosis de vacunas recibidas y las fechas probables de mayor pico pandémico. Se utilizaron los modelos de crecimiento poblacional logístico de Gompertz, Weibull y Loglogistic para obtener ecuaciones de pronóstico de casos confirmados. Se calcularon los números de reproducción básico Ro y efectivo Rt.  Resultados: el conocimiento de las ecuaciones de ajuste en los municipios de la provincia de Cienfuegos, permitió a las autoridades de salud y del gobierno diseñar estrategias para reducir la reproducción efectiva y su seguimiento aumentó la efectividad de las medidas tomadas. Existe una adecuación de los modelos presentados con respecto a los valores pronosticados y los reales lo cual permite una confiabilidad de los mismos para los pronósticos efectuados.  Conclusiones: los modelos de crecimiento poblacional logístico, de Weibull y de Gompertz utilizados para la obtención de ecuaciones de pronósticos de casos confirmados de la COVID-19, permiten el monitoreo, control y proyección futuras del comportamiento de la pandemia según indicadores significativos en Cienfuegos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Background: The world and Cuba in the last two years have been affected by Covid-19. It is of vital importance for Public Health to have statistical studies of infected cases, prognostic equations of the same and possible peaks of the disease, with a view to applying the appropriate measures to combat the pandemic.  Objective: The objective of the work is to carry out statistical studies on the data of confirmed cases in the province of Cienfuegos, in the period from March 2020 to August 2021.  Methods: The Applied Mathematics Research Group of the University of Cienfuegos carried out a statistical study of the databases of patients confirmed with Covid-19, in the 8 municipalities of the province of Cienfuegos, from March 2020 to August 2021. applied descriptive statistics on the accumulated confirmed cases, age, sex, doses of vaccines received and the probable dates of the highest pandemic peak. The Gompertz, Weibull and Loglogistic logistic population growth models were used to obtain forecast equations for confirmed cases. The basic reproduction numbers Ro and effective Rt were calculated.  Results: Knowledge of the adjustment equations in the municipalities of the province of Cienfuegos allows health and government authorities to design strategies to reduce effective reproduction and their monitoring increases the effectiveness of the measures taken. There is an adequacy of the models presented with respect to the predicted and real values, which allows their reliability for the forecasts made.  Conclusions: The logistic, Weibull and Gompertz population growth models used to obtain forecast equations in the province of Cienfuegos of confirmed cases of COVID-19, allow future monitoring, control and projection of the behavior of the pandemic according to significant indicators in Cienfuegos.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prognosis]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<label>1</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Organización Mundial de la Salud</collab>
<source><![CDATA[WHO Director-General&amp;apos;s remarks at the 65th Session of the Commission on Narcotic Drugs - 15 March 2022, Humanitarian approach to drug policy; opportunity and challenges for an effective cooperation between public authorities and health-based organizations.]]></source>
<year>2022</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ginebra ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[OMS]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<label>2</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhou]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Li Zhi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Nat Rev Microbiol]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<page-range>141-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<label>3</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina Mendieta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JF]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Cortés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Iglesias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[COVID-19 Forecasts for Cuba Using Logistic Regression and Gompertz Curves]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[MEDICC review]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>32-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<label>4</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina Mendieta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JF]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Cortés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[ME]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Iglesias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Ajuste de curvas de crecimiento poblacional aplicadas a la COVID-19 en Cuba]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Rev Haban Cienc Méd]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>Supl</numero>
<issue>Supl</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<label>5.</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina Mendieta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JF]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Cortés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[ME]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Iglesias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez Fernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[del]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Manzano Cabrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Estudio sobre modelos predictivos para la COVID-19 en Cuba]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Medisur]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>18</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<label>6</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Batista]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Estimation of the final size of the COVID-19 epidemic]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[MedRxiv BioRxiv]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<page-range>34-7</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<label>7</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Li]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Prediction and analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ithaca ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cornell University]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<label>8</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Remuzzi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Remuzzi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[COVID-19 and Italy what next?]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Lancet]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>395</volume>
<numero>10231</numero>
<issue>10231</issue>
<page-range>1225-8</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<label>9</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Qeadan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Honda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gren]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[LH]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dailey-Provost]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Benson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[LS]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[VanDerslice]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JA]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Int J Environ Res Public Health. 16 de abril de]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>17</volume>
<numero>8</numero>
<issue>8</issue>
<page-range>2750</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<label>10</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villalobos-Arias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Estimation of population infected by COVID-19 using regression generalized logistics and optimization heuristics]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[ArXiv Prepr ArXiv200401207]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<label>11</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Seber]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[GA.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Nonlinear Regression Models]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Seber]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Linear Model and Hypothesis: A General Unifying Theory]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<page-range>117-28</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Manhattan ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Springer International Publishing]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<label>12</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moamer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baghestani]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[AR]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pourhoseingholi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MA]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Maboudi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[AAK]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shahsavari]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zali]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MR]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Application of the parametric regression model with the four-parameter log-logistic distribution for determining of the effecting factors on the survival rate of colorectal cancer patients in the presence of competing risks]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Iran Red Crescent Med J]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<issue>6</issue>
<page-range>23-7</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<label>13</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Finney]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[DJ]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Bioassay and the practice of statistical inference International Statistical Review]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Internationale Statistique]]></source>
<year>1979</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<page-range>1-12</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<label>14</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kyurkchiev]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Iliev]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Extension of Gompertz-type Equation in Modern Science: 240 Anniversary of the birth of B. Gompertz]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Moldova ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Lambert Academic Publishing]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<label>15</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wais]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A review of Weibull functions in wind sector]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Renew Sustain Energy Rev]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>70</volume>
<page-range>1099-107</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<label>16</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brain]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cousens]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[An equation to describe dose responses where there is stimulation of growth at low doses]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Weed Res]]></source>
<year>1989</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>93-6</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<label>17</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Groot]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JC]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cone]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JW]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Williams]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[BA]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Debersaques]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[FM]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lantinga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[EA]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Multiphasic analysis of gas production kinetics for in vitro fermentation of rinant feeds]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Anim Feed Sci Technol]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<volume>64</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>77-89</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<label>18</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ricketts]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JH]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Head]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[GA]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A five-parameter logistic equation for investigating asymmetry of curvature in baroreflex studies]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Am J Physiol-Regul Integr Comp Physiol]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>277</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>R441-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<label>19</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[White]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[LF]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pagano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[PLoS One]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<label>20</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cori]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferguson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[NM]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fraser]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cauchemez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Am J Epidemiol]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>178</volume>
<numero>9</numero>
<issue>9</issue>
<page-range>1505-12</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<label>21</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wallinga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lipsitch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers Proceedings of the Royal Society B]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Pro R Soc]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>274</volume>
<numero>1609</numero>
<issue>1609</issue>
<page-range>599-604</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
