<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1990-8644</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Conrado]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Conrado]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1990-8644</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editorial Universo Sur]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1990-86442020000200138</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo lineal mixto generalizado para la detección de estudiantes exitosos del primer año de ingeniería de sistemas]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Generalized mixed linear model for the detection of successful first-year system engineering students]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz Macías]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Efraín]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guanin Fajardo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>73</numero>
<fpage>138</fpage>
<lpage>142</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1990-86442020000200138&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1990-86442020000200138&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1990-86442020000200138&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La importancia de anticipar los resultados educativos es esencial para intervenir y controlar los factores que conducen al fracaso académico. Es importante que las instituciones de educación superior dispongan de herramientas que sirvan para el análisis en profundidad de los datos de los estudiantes. Para ello, se evaluó la influencia de variables vinculadas al paso del primer año de la carrera de ingeniería de sistemas. Así, se utilizó el conjunto de datos de estudiantes de 4 períodos de estudio con 5.325 observaciones y 8 variables categóricas. Por lo tanto, se utilizó el modelo mixto lineal generalizado con variable de respuesta binominal (éxito/fallo) con efectos aleatorios. Los resultados de las variables vinculadas al éxito académico se relacionan con el modelo obtenido, a través del contraste de modelos fijos y aleatorios que pueden afectar a los estudiantes exitosos. La validación de los modelos se llevó a cabo mediante la prueba Anova tipo III. A la luz de los resultados, los hallazgos sugieren un modelo significativo, relacionado con los tertiles de las calificaciones del primer parcial, cuartil de asistencia a clases, asignatura y cuerpo docente. Además, proporcionan a los administradores de la educación una visión oportuna de la toma de decisiones.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The importance of anticipating educational outcomes is essential to intervene and control the factors that lead to academic failure. It is important for higher education institutions to have tools that serve for the in-depth analysis of student data. In order to do so, the influence of variables linked to the passing of the first year of the systems engineering degree was evaluated. Thus, the data set of students from 4 study periods with 5325 observations and 8 categorical variables was used. Hence, the generalized linear mixed model with binominal response variable (success/failure) with random effects was used. The results of the variables linked to academic success are related to the model obtained, through the contrast of fixed and random models that may affect successful students. The validation of the models was carried out by means of the Anova type III test. In the light of the results, the findings suggest a significant model, related to the tertile of grades of the first partial, quartile of attendance to classes, subject and teachers body. In addition, they provide timely insight into decision making to educational administrators.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Análisis educativo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[educación superior]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo lineal mixto generalizado]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[rendimiento académico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Educational analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[higher education]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[generalized mixed linear model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[academic performance]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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