<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2218-3620</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Universidad y Sociedad]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Universidad y Sociedad]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2218-3620</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editorial "Universo Sur"]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2218-36202024000400099</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Elementos y modelos clave para estimar la incertidumbre en el marco de la planificación estratégica]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Key elements and models to estimate uncertainty in the framework of strategic planning]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Suarez Arias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lady Caterine]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez Cañas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gonzalo Andrés]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de la Salle  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>99</fpage>
<lpage>115</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2218-36202024000400099&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2218-36202024000400099&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2218-36202024000400099&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN En este artículo se presentan los principales autores que desarrollan modelos de estimación de la incertidumbre, en procesos de planeación estratégica de las organizaciones y su incidencia en los objetivos institucionales. En este orden de ideas, se ha realizado una revisión de la literatura con fundamento en enfoques y modelos que han sido utilizados a través del tiempo para manejar la incertidumbre empresarial y se presentan algunos casos aplicados para diferentes factores internos de una organización; así mismo dentro de este artículo se contemplan factores externos como medioambientales en los cuales se han hecho uso de los siguientes modelos: modelo de decisión, modelo de factores locales vs fuerzas conductoras, simulación Monte Carlo y Modelo Delphi; y finalmente para los factores sociopolíticos se ha implementado el enfoque heurístico para explorar las incertidumbres en la planificación. Por otro lado, se realiza un análisis de los tipos de planificación que manejan las organizaciones con sus respectivos modelos de incertidumbre. La principal conclusión obtenida, radica en el hecho de que no existen modelos que integren elementos tanto endógenos como exógenos capaces de reducir la incertidumbre para efectos de una adecuada planeación estratégica en las organizaciones y proyectos de inversión a su cargo.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT This article presents the main authors who develop uncertainty estimation models in strategic planning processes of organizations and their impact on institutional objectives. In this order of ideas, a review of the literature has been carried out based on approaches and models that have been used over time to manage business uncertainty and some cases applied to different internal factors of an organization are presented; Likewise, within this article, external and environmental factors are considered in which the following models have been used: decision model, local factors vs driving forces model, Monte Carlo simulation and Delphi Model; and finally for sociopolitical factors, the heuristic approach has been implemented to explore uncertainties in planning. On the other hand, an analysis is carried out of the types of planning that organizations manage with their respective uncertainty models. The main conclusion obtained lies in the fact that there are no models that integrate both endogenous and exogenous elements capable of reducing uncertainty for the purposes of adequate strategic planning in the organizations and investment projects under their charge.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelos de Incertidumbre]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Planeación Estratégica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Gestión organizacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Proyectos de inversión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Uncertainty models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Strategic Planning]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Organizational management]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Investment project]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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