<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2664-0880</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Cubana de Meteorología]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Cubana Met.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2664-0880</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedad Meteorológica de Cuba]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2664-08802023000400009</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Short term generation forecast for photovoltaic farms connected to the National Power Grid]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico a muy corto plazo para parques solares fotovoltaicos conectados a la Red Eléctrica Nacional]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Borrajero Montejo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Israel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hinojosa Fernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miguel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peláez Chávez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Naranjo Villalón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Krystine]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Roque Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alfredo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto de Meteorología Centro de Física de la Atmósfera ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2664-08802023000400009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2664-08802023000400009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2664-08802023000400009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT A very short term forecast (15 min) of photovoltaic generation from solar farms connected to the National Power Grid in Cuba is presented. The approach described here is based, on one side, on the Heliosat II method for the estimation of solar radiation from meteorological satellites visible images and on the other, on the Cloud Motion Vectors algorithm, which allows to produce an image extrapolated to a near future time based on two consecutive images already received. Both methods are combined to produce an irradiance forecast that is used to estimate the power generation for a given location. In this case, a sample of the available farms. With the available satellite images and processing power, this implementation allows to produce a 15 minutes forecast every 5 minutes achieving a correlation of 0.835 between predicted and reported values in the farms and a mean square error of 0.51 Mw.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Se presenta un pronóstico a muy corto plazo (15 min) de generación fotovoltaica a partir de parques solares conectados al Sistema Eléctrico Nacional en Cuba. El enfoque aquí descrito se basa, por un lado, en el método Heliosat II para la estimación de la radiación solar a partir de imágenes visibles de satélites meteorológicos y, por otro, en el algoritmo Cloud Motion Vectors, que permite producir una imagen extrapolable en el futuro próximo basado en dos imágenes consecutivas. Ambos métodos se combinan para producir un pronóstico de irradiancia que se utiliza para estimar la generación de energía para un lugar determinado. En este caso, una muestra de los parques disponibles. Con las imágenes satelitales disponibles y la potencia de procesamiento, esta implementación permite producir un pronóstico de 15 minutos cada 5 minutos logrando una correlación de 0,835 entre los valores predichos y reportados en las fincas y un error cuadrático medio de 0,51 MW.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cloud Motion Vector]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Solar Radiation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Short Term Forecast]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Satellite Images]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Vector de movimiento de nubes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Radiación Solar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico a Corto Plazo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Imágenes de satélite]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lorenz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hurka]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Karampela]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Heinemann]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Beyer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schneider]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Qualified forecast of ensemble power production by spatially dispersed grid-connected PV systems]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Perez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kivalov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schlemmer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hemker]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Renné]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hoff]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Solar Energy]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>84</volume>
<numero>12</numero>
<issue>12</issue>
<page-range>2161-72</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mathiesen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Collier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kleissl]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Solar Energy]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>92</volume>
<page-range>47-1</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Huang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hao]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Xu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jin]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Zhenzhou]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yoo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Shinjae]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Dantong]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hong Qin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Dong Huang]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Cloud Motion Estimation for Short Term Solar Irradiation Prediction]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ 2013 IEEE International Conference on Smart Grid Communications (SmartGridComm)]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc>Vancouver, BC, Canada </conf-loc>
<page-range>696-701</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tiwari]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sabzehgar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rasouli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Short Term Solar Irradiance Forecast based on Image Processing and Cloud Motion Detection]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ 2019 IEEE Texas Power and Energy Conference (TPEC)]]></conf-name>
<conf-date>2019</conf-date>
<conf-loc>TX, USA </conf-loc>
<page-range>1-6</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Escrig]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Batlles]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alonso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baena]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bosch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salbidegoitia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Burgaleta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.I.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cloud detection, classification and motion estimation using geostationary satellite imagery for cloud cover forecast]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Energy]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>55</volume>
<page-range>853-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zaher]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ghanem]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Clouds Motion Estimation from Ground-Based Sky Camera and Satellite Image]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[InTech]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Monget]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alnursson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guillard]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A method for the determination of the global solar radiation from meteorological satellite]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Solar Energy]]></source>
<year>1986</year>
<volume>37</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>31-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Albarelo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Marie-Joseph]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Primerose]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Optimizing the Heliosat-II Method for Surface Solar Irradiation Estimation with GOES Images]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hammer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Heinemann]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lorenz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Luckehed]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Short-Term Forecasting Of Solar Radiation: A Statistical Approach Using Satellite Data]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Solar Energy]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>67</volume>
<numero>1-3</numero>
<issue>1-3</issue>
<page-range>139-50</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farneback]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Two-Frame Motion Estimation Based on Polynomial Expansion]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Image Analysis]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<page-range>363-70</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lucas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kanade]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[An Iterative Image Registration Technique with an Application to Stereo Vision]]></source>
<year>1981</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
