<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0034-7523</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Cubana de Medicina]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev cubana med]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0034-7523</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro Nacional de Información de Ciencias MédicasEditorial Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0034-75232020000300003</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Entrada de viajeros y densidad poblacional en la propagación de la COVID-19 en Cuba]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Arrival of travelers and population density in the spread of COVID-19 in Cuba]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zamora Matamoros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Larisa]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sagaró del Campo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Nelsa María]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdés García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis Eugenio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Benítez Jiménez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ileana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Ciencias Médicas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santiago de Cuba ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Oriente  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santiago de Cuba ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>59</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0034-75232020000300003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0034-75232020000300003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0034-75232020000300003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción:  El comportamiento no homogéneo de la cantidad de casos confirmados con COVID-19 en diferentes regiones de Cuba aún no se ha esclarecido, lo cual resultaría de utilidad para la toma de decisiones en futuras epidemias en el país.  Objetivo:  Determinar la influencia de la entrada de viajeros y la densidad poblacional sobre la distribución no homogénea de la cantidad de casos con COVID-19 por provincias en Cuba.  Métodos:  Se desarrolló un estudio ecológico, exploratorio, de grupos múltiples, comparando las provincias cubanas según variables del nivel global y agregado, relacionadas con la cantidad de casos con COVID-19, confirmados durante la epidemia en Cuba. Se aplicó el análisis de regresión lineal múltiple para seleccionar el modelo que mejor describe el comportamiento de los datos y el análisis de clúster para visualizar la agrupación de las provincias.  Resultados:  Se evidenció una correlación significativa entre la cantidad de casos con COVID-19 y la cantidad de viajeros con COVID-19, la cantidad total de viajeros que arribaron al país en marzo y los eventos de trasmisión. En el modelo de regresión resultaron significativas la densidad poblacional y las cantidades de viajeros total y con COVID-19. El análisis de clúster reveló la formación de cuatro grupos de provincias.  Conclusiones:  La cantidad de casos con COVID-19 por provincia se relaciona con la cantidad de viajeros que entraron al país, con y sin COVID-19, y la densidad poblacional. Se forman cuatro grupos de provincias por su similitud en los aspectos identificados en la regresión.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction:  The non-homogeneous behavior of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases in different regions of Cuba has not yet been clarified, which would be useful for decision-making in future epidemics in the country.  Objective:  To determine the influence of the arrival of travelers and the population density on the non-homogeneous distribution of the number of COVID-19 cases by provinces in Cuba.  Methods:  An ecological, exploratory, multiple group study was carried out, comparing Cuban provinces according to variables of the global and aggregate levels, related to the number of COVID-19 cases, confirmed during the epidemic in Cuba. Multiple linear regression analysis was applied to select the model that best describes the behavior of the data and cluster analysis to visualize the grouping of the provinces.  Results:  A significant correlation was proved between the number of COVID-19 cases and the number of travelers with COVID-19, the total number of travelers who arrived in Cuba in March, and transmission events. In the regression model, the population density and the total number of travelers and those with COVID-19 were significant. The cluster analysis revealed the formation of four groups of provinces.  Conclusions:  The number of cases with COVID-19 by province is related to the number of travelers who arrived in the country, with and with no COVID-19, and the population density. Four groups of provinces are formed by their similarity in the aspects identified at regression.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[regresión lineal múltiple]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[clúster]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[eventos de trasmisión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[viajeros]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[densidad poblacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[multiple linear regression]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cluster]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[transmission events]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[travellers]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[population density]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<label>1</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<source><![CDATA[Dashboard Cuba: Covid-19.]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<label>2</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leung]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[NY]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bulterys]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MA.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bulterys]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[PL]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Predictors of COVID-19 incidence, mortality, and epidemic growth rate at the country level]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[MedRxiv]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<label>3</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Blanco Becerra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[LC]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pinzón Flórez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[CE]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Idrovo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[AJ]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Estudios ecológicos en salud ambiental: más allá de la epidemiología]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Biomédica]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>35</volume>
<page-range>191-206</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<label>4</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wolfgang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Léopold]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<edition>Fourth</edition>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Berlin Heidelberg ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Springer-Verlag]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<label>5</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Stockemer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Multivariate Regression Analysis]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Quantitative Methods for the Social Sciences]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<page-range>163-74</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cham ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Springer]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<label>6</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salvador Figueras]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Análisis de conglomerados o clúster]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[España ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Zaragoza]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<label>7</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Minsap Dirección de Registros Médicos y Estadísticas de Salud</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Anuario de Salud 2019]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<page-range>97</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[La Habana ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<label>8</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zaiontz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Real statistics resource pack]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<label>9</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rocklöv]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sjödin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[High population densities catalyse the spread of COVID-19]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Travel Med]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>038</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<label>10</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Freedman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JL]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Heshka]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Levy]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Population density and pathology: Is there a relationship?]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Experimental Social Psychology]]></source>
<year>1975</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<issue>6</issue>
<page-range>539-52</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<label>11</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wahba]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<collab>World Bank Blog</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Urban Density Is Not an Enemy in the Coronavirus Fight: Evidence from China]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<label>12</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Verbrugge]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[LM]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Taylor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[RB]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Consequences of Population Density and Size]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Urban Affairs Quarterly]]></source>
<year>1980</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>135-60</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<label>13</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Menchero Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Flujos turísticos, geopolítica y COVID-19: cuando los turistas internacionales son vectores de transmisión]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Geopolítica(s)]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>^sEspecial</numero>
<issue>^sEspecial</issue>
<supplement>Especial</supplement>
<page-range>105-14</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<label>14</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Perret]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[PC]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Infecciones en viajeros internacionales]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Rev. Med. Clin. Condes]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>565-8</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<label>15</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Myers]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JF]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Snyder]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[RE]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Porse]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[CC]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Identification and Monitoring of International Travelers During the Initial Phase of an Outbreak of COVID-19]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Morb Mortal Wkly Rep]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>69</volume>
<numero>19</numero>
<issue>19</issue>
<page-range>599-602</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<label>16</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chinazzi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Davis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JT]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ajelli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gioannini]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Litvinova]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Merler]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Science]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>368</volume>
<numero>6489</numero>
<issue>6489</issue>
<page-range>395-400</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<label>17</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhou]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Distribución temporal, geográfica y por población de la nueva enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19) desde el 20 de enero hasta el 10 de febrero de 2020 en China]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Rev Clin Esp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<label>18</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pedrosa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[RH]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The dynamics of Covid-19: weather, demographics and infection timeline]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[MedRxiv]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
