<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0864-0300</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Cubana de Investigaciones Biomédicas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev Cubana Invest Bioméd]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0864-0300</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[ECIMED]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0864-03002022000100006</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Predicción de la prevalencia de la enfermedad periodontal en la población colombiana en el contexto de la caminata al azar probabilista]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Prediction Of The Prevalence Of Periodontal Disease In The Colombian Population In The Context Of Probabilistic Random Walking]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez Velásquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier Oswaldo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González Bernal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María Alejandra]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ruiz Gómez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adíela]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Correa Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sandra Catalina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Prieto Bohórquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Signed Esperanza]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Grupo Insight  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Bogotá D.C.]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia Facultad de Odontología Grupo Odontoposgrados]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Seccional Bogotá]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>41</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0864-03002022000100006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0864-03002022000100006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0864-03002022000100006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción: La enfermedad periodontal es un problema de salud pública que requiere de un seguimiento en el tiempo que permita la implementación de planes de salud apropiados.  Objetivo: Establecer el comportamiento de la dinámica de la enfermedad periodontal a través de la caminata al azar probabilista mediante la simulación de los valores de la prevalencia de la enfermedad periodontal en Colombia.  Métodos: Se tomaron los valores disponibles y reportados por el Estudio Nacional de Salud Bucal II al IV de la prevalencia de la enfermedad periodontal, y a partir de estos se realizaron tres simulaciones de este comportamiento, para hacer predicciones de los valores de la prevalencia para los años 1998 y 2014 mediante la caminata al azar probabilista. Adicionalmente, se realizaron tres simulaciones predictivas para la dinámica de la prevalencia hasta el año 2030, para establecer el comportamiento teórico que esta variable pueda seguir.  Resultados: Las tres simulaciones teóricas permitieron hacer predicciones del índice de prevalencia para el año 1998 y 2014 con un porcentaje de acierto cercano al 100 %. Adicionalmente se observó que el evento más probable es que se presente un aumento en índice de prevalencia para el año 2030 respecto al valor obtenido para el 2014.  Conclusiones: Es posible realizar predicciones del comportamiento de la dinámica de la enfermedad periodontal que permitan evaluar los planes de acción en salud orientados a disminuir la prevalencia de las enfermedades periodontales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction:  Periodontal disease is a public health problem which requires follow-up over time that allows the implementation of appropriate health plans.  Objective:  Establish the behavior of the dynamics of periodontal disease through probabilistic random walking by simulating the values of periodontal disease prevalence in Colombia.  Methods:  The values available and reported by the National Oral Health Study II to IV on periodontal disease prevalence were taken, and from these, three simulations of this behavior were carried out to make predictions of the prevalence values for the years 1998 and 2014 through probabilistic random walking. Additionally, three predictive simulations were performed for the dynamics of prevalence until 2030 to establish the theoretical behavior that this variable can follow.  Results:  The three theoretical simulations allowed to make predictions of the prevalence rate for the years 1998 and 2014 with a percentage of success close to 100 %. Additionally, it was observed that the most likely event is that there will be an increase in the prevalence rate by 2030 compared to the value obtained by 2014.  Conclusions:  It is possible to make predictions of the periodontal disease&#8217;s dynamics behavior that allow evaluating health action plans aimed at reducing the prevalence of periodontal diseases.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[prevalencia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[periodontitis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[probabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prevalence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[periodontitis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[probability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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