<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1729-519X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Habanera de Ciencias Médicas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev haban cienc méd]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1729-519X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de la Habana]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1729-519X2020000400013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Ajuste de curvas de crecimiento poblacional aplicadas a la COVID-19 en Cuba]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Adjustment of population growth curve applied to COVID-19 in Cuba]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina Mendieta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Felipe]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Cortés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Iglesias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Cienfuegos &#8220;Carlos Rafael Rodríguez&#8221;  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cienfuegos ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>19</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1729-519X2020000400013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1729-519X2020000400013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1729-519X2020000400013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción:  Cuba ha sido afectada por la COVID-19. Todas las provincias del país han presentado casos confirmados de la enfermedad. Se han llevado a cabo medidas por parte del gobierno y el sistema de salud, para contrarrestar el contagio de persona a persona. Es de gran ayuda contar con estimaciones de casos confirmados para las decisiones.  Objetivos:  Obtener predicciones para los picos de casos confirmados y cantidad total de estos para algunas provincias de Cuba y para todo el país.  Material y Métodos:  Estudio de tipo predictivo de curvas de crecimiento poblacional. Se analizan los datos correspondientes a los primeros 52 días de afectación de la enfermedad en el país para estimar los modelos y aplicar el método de los mínimos cuadrados para modelos no lineales con respecto a los parámetros. Se utilizan el coeficiente de determinación ajustado, el criterio de información de Akaike y el error estándar de los residuos para medir la bondad del ajuste de los modelos. Se estudian las provincias del país que presentan una tasa de infectados por cien mil habitantes mayor que 14,71 y el país en su conjunto.  Resultados:  La bondad de ajuste de los modelos utilizados en las localidades estudiadas y en el país es alta, lo cual permite su confiabilidad para los pronósticos efectuados.  Conclusiones:  Las predicciones plantean que las cinco localidades analizadas presentan su pico de contagio en abril al igual que Cuba.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction:  Cuba and all its provinces have been affected by COVID-19 disease. The government and the health system have taken measures to avoid contagion from person to person. To take these measures it is important to have estimates of the rate of infection.  Objectives:  To obtain predictions for the peak of infected cases and the total number for some Cuban provinces and the whole country.  Material and Methods:  Predictive study of population growth curves. Data from the first 52 days of the disease in the country are processed to estimate the models and to apply the method of least squares estimation of nonlinear parameters. The adjusted coefficient of determination, the Akaike information criterion and the standard error of the residuals are used to measure the goodness of fit of the models. The provinces that present a rate of infection per 100,000 inhabitants greater than 14,71 and the country as a whole are studied.  Results:  The goodness of fit of the models used in the provinces studied and the country is high, which allows them to be reliable for predictions.  Conclusions:  The predictions suggest that the five provinces analyzed and Cuba show their peak of contagion in April.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estudio predictivo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[curvas de crecimiento poblacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cuba]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[predictive study]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[population growth curves]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cuba]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<label>1</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zeng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wong]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[SS]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Liang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zanin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[J Thorac Dis]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>165</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<label>2</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cagigal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MAG]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Becario]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[FPU]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Modelado y análisis de la evolución de una epidemia vírica mediante filtros de Kalman: el caso de la COVID-19 en España. En: Depósito de investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[España ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Sevilla]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<label>3</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Simón Mínguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Procesos de difusión Logístico y Gompertz. Métodos numéricos clásicos en la estimación paramétrica]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[España ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Granada]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<label>4</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Li]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Prediction and analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[ArXiv]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<label>5</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhuge]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hong]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[ArXiv]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<label>6</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Batista]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Estimation of the final size of the COVID-19 epidemic]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Estados Unidos ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[MedRxiv]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<label>7</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dattoli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Di Palma]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Licciardi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sabia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[A Note on the Evolution of Covid-19 in Italy]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[ArXiv]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<label>8</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Remuzzi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Remuzzi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[COVID-19 and Italy: what next?]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Lancet]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>395</volume>
<page-range>1225-8</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<label>9</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Qeadan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Honda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gren]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[LH]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dailey Provost]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Benson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[LS]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Van Derslice]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JA]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Int J Environ Res Public Health]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>17</volume>
<numero>8</numero>
<issue>8</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<label>10</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villalobos-Arias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Estimation of population infected by Covid-19 using regression Generalized logistics and optimization heuristics]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[ArXiv]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<label>11</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tátrai]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Várallyay]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[COVID-19 epidemic outcome predictions based on logistic fitting and estimation of its reliability]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[ArXiv]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<label>12</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Seber]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[GAF]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Nonlinear Regression Models. En su: The Linear Model and Hypothesis: A General Unifying Theory. Cham]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<page-range>117-28</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Springer International Publishing]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<label>13</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moamer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baghestani]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[AR]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pourhoseingholi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MA]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Maboudi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[AAK]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shahsavari]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zali]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MR]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Application of the parametric regression model with the four-parameter log-logistic distribution for determining of the effecting factors on the survival rate of colorectal cancer patients in the presence of competing risks]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Iran Red Crescent Med J]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<issue>6</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<label>14</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Finney]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[DJ]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Bioassay and the practice of statistical inference]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Int Stat Rev Int Stat]]></source>
<year>1979</year>
<volume>47</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-12</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<label>15</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kyurkchiev]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Iliev]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Extension of Gompertz-type Equation in Modern Science: 240 Anniversary of the birth of B. Gompertz.]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Deutschland ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<label>16</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wais]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A review of Weibull functions in wind sector]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Renew Sustain Energy Rev]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>70</volume>
<page-range>1099-107</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<label>17</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brain]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cousens]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[An equation to describe dose responses where there is stimulation of growth at low doses]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Weed Res]]></source>
<year>1989</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>93-6</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<label>18</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Groot]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JCJ]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cone]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JW]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Williams]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[BA]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Debersaques]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[FMA]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lantinga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[EA]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Multiphasic analysis of gas production kinetics for in vitro fermentation of ruminant feeds]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Anim Feed Sci Technol]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<volume>64</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>77-89</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<label>19</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ricketts]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JH]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Head]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[GA]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A five-parameter logistic equation for investigating asymmetry of curvature in baroreflex studies]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Am J Physiol-Regul Integr Comp Physiol]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>277</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>R441-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<label>20</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>R: The R Project for Statistical Computing</collab>
<source><![CDATA[]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Austria ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[R Foundation for Statistical Computing]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<label>21</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Colin Cameron]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Windmeijer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[FAG]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[An R-squared measure of goodness of fit for some common nonlinear regression models]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[J Econom]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
<volume>77</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>329-42</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<label>22</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Osuji]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[GA]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Okoro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[CN]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Obubu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Obiora Llouno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[HO]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Effect of akaike information criterion on model selection in analyzing auto-crash variables]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Int J Sci Basic Appl Res]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>26</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>98-109</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<label>23</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Draper]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[NR]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Smith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Applied regression analysis]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<edition>3ra</edition>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[United States ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[John Wiley &amp; Sons]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<label>24</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Neill]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JW]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Testing for lack of fit in nonlinear regression]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Ann Stat]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>733-40</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
