<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2071-0054</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Ciencias Técnicas Agropecuarias]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev Cie Téc Agr]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2071-0054</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Agraria de La Habana]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2071-00542018000400002</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Stochastic Linear Modeling for the Forecast of Flows in Basin, Western Region of Cuba]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación lineal estocástica para el pronóstico de caudales en cuenca, región occidental de Cuba]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rivero-Villaverde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Anaily]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alonso-Brito]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gustavo Reinel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lau-Quan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Andrés]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Agraria de La Habana Facultad de Ciencias Técnicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[San José de las Lajas Mayabeque]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2071-00542018000400002&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2071-00542018000400002&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2071-00542018000400002&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT This study focuses on the subwatershed "V Aniversario", belonging to Cuyaguateje River Basin, Pinar del Río Province. Its latitudinal position leads to the development of a greater volume of runoff, higher than other karstic regions in the country, then numerous damages related mainly with floods are done. Therefore, the objective of this work is to forecast the runoff in advance at the subwatershed, on annual and monthly scales, through linear stochastic modeling. In order to comply with the above, White Noise, AR (p), MA (q) and ARMA (p, q) models for the annual runoff series were implemented in R software, being the White Noise model the best adjusted to it. However, the monthly runoff series must be modeled by SARIMA, because it presented a seasonal behavior. It is interesting to note that the latter had a better memory and linear correlation compared to the annual series.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Este estudio se enfoca en la subcuenca &#8220;V Aniversario&#8221;, perteneciente a la cuenca del Río Cuyaguateje, provincia de Pinar del Río. Su posición latitudinal favorece el desarrollo de un volumen de escurrimiento superior a otras corrientes en zonas cársicas del país, por lo que se producen numerosos daños relacionados fundamentalmente con las inundaciones. Por tanto, el objetivo de este trabajo es pronosticar con antelación el escurrimiento en esta subcuenca, a escalas anual y mensual, a través de la modelación lineal estocástica. Para dar cumplimiento a lo anterior, se implementaron en el software R los modelos: Ruido Blanco, AR(p), MA(q) y ARMA(p,q) para la serie de escurrimiento anual, ajustándose mejor a la misma el Ruido Blanco. Sin embargo, la serie de escurrimiento mensual debe ser modelada mediante un SARIMA, pues presentó un comportamiento estacional. Es de interés destacar, que esta última tuvo mejor memoria y correlación lineal en comparación con la serie anual.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[time series]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[White Noise]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[AR (p)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MA (q)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[autocorrelation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[series de tiempo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Ruido Blanco]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[AR(p)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MA(q)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[autocorrelación]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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