<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2218-3620</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Universidad y Sociedad]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Universidad y Sociedad]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2218-3620</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editorial "Universo Sur"]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2218-36202021000100119</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Forecast of the demand for medications by a pharmaceutical organization using the Arima model]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico de demanda de medicamentos en una organización farmacéutica a través de un modelo Arima]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ramón]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[León González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge Luis]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Álvarez Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yanelys]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Cienfuegos &#8220;Carlos Rafael Rodríguez&#8221;  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>119</fpage>
<lpage>130</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2218-36202021000100119&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2218-36202021000100119&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2218-36202021000100119&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The study of the demand for medications is one of the stages that should be taken into account in planning these inventories. Such study helps managers and governmental organizations in the decision-making process. The scope of this paper is to put forth a method of forecasting the demand for medications by a pharmaceutical organization. The study analyzes historical demand data in combination with morbidity data. A procedure is designed, based on the available scientific literature, and applied to one of the 487 medications studied. The forecast is adjusted according to the changes of morbidity; the data was provided by pharmaceutical authorities. The results suggest that the ARIMA (0,1,1)x(0,1,1)12 is the most adequate to forecast the demand of this product. Future researches may test the procedure designed in a wider variety of medications. This paper defines stages for the medication inventory forecast, by offering guidelines of the different activities that inventory planners should perform.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El estudio de la demanda de los medicamentos es una de las etapas que se deben cumplimentar en el proceso de planificación de estos bienes. Tal estudio ayuda a los directivos y a las organizaciones gubernamentales en el proceso de toma de decisiones. El objetivo de este artículo es pronosticar la demanda del inventario de medicamentos de una institución farmacéutica, al combinar los datos históricos de demanda y los datos de morbilidad asociados. Se diseña un procedimiento basado en la literatura y se aplica a uno de los 487 fármacos estudiados. Se ajusta el pronóstico a los cambios que experimenta la morbilidad a partir de los datos que aportan las autoridades farmacéuticas. Los resultados sugieren que el modelo más adecuado para el pronóstico de demanda del artículo seleccionado es el ARIMA (0,1,1)x(0,1,1)12. Las investigaciones futuras deben aplicar el procedimiento a una muestra superior. En el presente trabajo se definen fases para el pronóstico de la demanda de los fármacos, al alinear las diversas actividades que los hacedores de la planificación deben desempeñar.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Demand for medications]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[demand forecast]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARIMA model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Demanda de los medicamentos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronóstico de demanda]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo ARIMA]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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