<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2310-340X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Cooperativismo y Desarrollo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Coodes]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2310-340X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Pinar del Río "Hermanos Saíz Montes de Oca"]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2310-340X2020000300538</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo de predicción de series temporales para la demanda turística de la Cadena Hotelera Cubanacán]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Modelo de previsão das séries temporais para a procura turística da Cadeia de Hotéis Cubanacán]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Time series prediction model for the tourism demand of the Cubanacán Hotel Chain]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fernández López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Reinier]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ledy Raúl]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alfonso Alemán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barrio Padrón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Olga]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Pinar del Río "Hermanos Saíz Montes de Oca" Facultad de Ciencias Técnicas Departamento de Matemática]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Pinar del Río ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Fondo Cubano de Bienes Culturales  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Pinar del Río ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Delegación Provincial del Ministerio de Turismo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Pinar del Río ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>8</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>538</fpage>
<lpage>551</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2310-340X2020000300538&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2310-340X2020000300538&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2310-340X2020000300538&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La demanda turística influye de manera vital en la planificación y proyección de los decisores en esta actividad. En tal sentido, pronosticar la demanda turística, integrando de este modo las cadenas productivas al resto de las actividades socioeconómicas de los procesos de producción y servicios, se convierte en una herramienta insoslayable. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo elaborar un modelo de pronóstico para la demanda turística mediante el empleo de técnicas de series temporales, que permita predecir el comportamiento del turismo, sustentado en la metodología Box-Jenkins y que respalde el proceso de toma de decisiones en la Cadena Hotelera Cubanacán de Pinar del Río, Cuba. Se logró formular un modelo riguroso con la utilización de los métodos estadísticos-matemáticos como ejes rectores de la investigación, además, se modeló la demanda turística hasta diciembre de 2019.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[RESUMO A procura turística tem uma influência vital no planeamento e projeção dos decisores nesta atividade. Neste sentido, a previsão da procura turística, integrando assim as cadeias produtivas com o resto das atividades socioeconómicas dos processos de produção e de serviço, torna-se uma ferramenta inevitável. O objetivo deste documento é desenvolver um modelo de previsão da procura turística utilizando técnicas de séries temporais, que permite a previsão do comportamento turístico, baseado na metodologia Box-Jenkins e que apoia o processo de tomada de decisão na Cadeia de Hotéis Cubanacán em Pinar del Río, Cuba. Um modelo rigoroso foi formulado utilizando métodos estatísticos-matemáticos como princípios orientadores da investigação. Além disso, a procura turística foi modelada até dezembro de 2019.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The tourist demand has a vital influence on the planning and projection of the decision makers in this activity. In this sense, prognosising the tourist demand, thus integrating the productive chains to the rest of the socio-economic activities of the production and service processes, becomes an unavoidable tool. The objective of this work is to elaborate a prognosis model for the tourist demand through the use of techniques of temporary series, which allows predicting the behavior of tourism, sustained in the Box-Jenkins methodology and which supports the process of decision making in Cubanacán Hotel Chain of Pinar del Río, Cuba. It was possible to formulate a rigorous model with the use of statistical-mathematical methods as guiding axes of the research; also, it was modeled the tourist demand until December 2019.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[demanda]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[metodología Box-Jenkins]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[series temporales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[turismo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[procura]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[metodologia Box-Jenkins]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[séries temporais]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[turismo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[demand]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Box-Jenkins methodology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[time series]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[tourism]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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