Introduction:

Diabetes mellitus has caused an increase in interest in the development of studies and research, currently enhanced by being considered a pandemic.

Objective:

To develop a risk score for type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients older than 45 years.

Method:

An analytical cohort study was carried out, with an analysis sample made up of 1021 patients and a validation sample with 891. The predictor variables were obtained through univariate analysis, by binary logistic regression and calculation of the odds ratio, with a significance level of p≤ 0.05. In the risk scale, the discriminant power was assessed through the area under the curve; to calibrate it, the omnibus tests, the R2 statistics of Cox, Snell, and Nagelkerke, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for p≥ 0.05 were calculated.

Results:

A model was obtained that explains 77.6% of the independent variable, with a sensitivity of 94.9% and a specificity of 85.3%, the area under the curve had a range of 0.725 to 0.833. A risk score was developed which was statistically significant with X2= 17; p= 0.017 and a sensitivity of 96.8%.

Conclusions:

The score developed predicts the risk of suffering type 2 diabetes mellitus in the patients studied.

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