Abstract

MIRANDA, Ileana. Mathematical modeling of the population dynamics: historical development and practical use in Cuba. Rev. Protección Veg. [online]. 2014, vol.29, n.3, pp. 157-167. ISSN 1010-2752.

The mathematical modeling has the highest point in the ecological studies because it allows optimizing the use of biological controls when determining the conditions of balance in the ecosystem. The historical evolution of the mathematical models in the field of the quantitative ecology of populations and the investigations carried out in Cuba are shown. The practical utility of the grades-days method as a measuring instrument is illustrated. The most known growth models, such as the logistical, prey-predator and host parasite, are presented. Lastly, we refer to the modifications carried out to the Lotka-Volterra Model and the feasibility of modeling the dynamics of the life cycle. For this topic in Cuba, the challenges established were: a) development of studies determining the influence of the environmental temperature changes on the biological parameters of pest populations in crops of economic importance, b) implementation of new modeling variants like the bayesian statistics and geo-statistics to increase the level of the predictions, c) continuation of multidisciplinary works guided to incorporate the biological interpretation of the mathematical models in the making of decisions in the integrated pest management.

Keywords : Biomathematics; Quantitative Ecology of Populations; population models; temperature thresholds; Integrated Pest Management.

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