Introduction:

upper gastrointestinal bleeding constitutes any blood loss of sufficient volume to produce hematemesis, melena or both, whose origin is between the upper esophageal sphincter and the angle of Treitz.

Objective:

to determine the predictive factors of mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Methods:

an observational, analytical, prospective cohort study was carried out. A sample of 456 patients older than 15 years with the clinical diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding admitted to the general surgery guardhouse and intensive and emergent care unit of the Celia Sánchez Manduley Hospital, Manzanillo, between January 2020 and December, was selected. 2021. A cohort of patients discharged alive (n = 415) and a cohort of deceased patients (n = 41) were identified. A bivariate analysis was performed and subsequently a multivariate analysis.

Results:

the most adjusted model of the predictive factors of mortality was made up of the following variables: age over 60 years, hypovolemic shock, heart failure, liver failure and recurrent bleeding.

Conclusions:

an adjusted model was obtained with the predictive factors of mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Therefore, we can discharge a patient with low risk of mortality early, while we can consider the admission of a high-risk patient to the intensive care unit.

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