Abstract

QUINTANA, Silverio Andrés; ESPINOZA, Rodrigo; ROJAS, Jorge  and  GABAGLIO, Samuel. Dynamics and computational simulation of COVID-19 in Paraguay in February 2021. Multimed [online]. 2022, vol.26, n.4  Epub July 18, 2022. ISSN 1028-4818.

The 2019 coronavirus disease is a worldwide concern, its spread is related to the characteristics of the virus and the taking of government, public health and social habits. Using mathematical and computational tools help to have an overview of the current situation and a future of this problem. In order to reflect behavior of this disease through simulation with system dynamics and evaluating the number of active infections, deaths and recoveries in Paraguay in the month of February 2021, the Vensim software was released by applying a modification of the basic model of epidemiology of Kermack and McKendrick who consider the population of susceptible, processed and recovered. The simulation of this dynamic has presented differences of 758 active cases, 216 deaths and 37009 recovered with respect to what was reported, with active cases being the most important approximation of the study.

Keywords : Simulation; COVID-19; SIR; Vensim.

        · abstract in Spanish | Portuguese     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )