Abstract

ARIAS ORTIZ, Yamile et al. Infant Mortality Epidemiology in Granma Province. CCM [online]. 2013, vol.17, n.3, pp. 266-274. ISSN 1560-4381.

Introduction: infant mortality reflects a country's socioeconomic panoramic that defines the standard of living influenced by environmental factors and health care. Objective: to characterize the epidemiology of infant mortality in Granma province from 2001 to 2011 as well as to predict its behaviour in 2012. Methods: the following techniques of analysis of infant mortality were used: rates, causes of death, neonatal component (early and late), and post-neonatal deaths per month were used. Absolute frequencies, relative and rates were used. The results were basically through simple arithmetic graph. Exponential smoothing method was used to analyze trend and the Holt method was used to predict the rate, and multiplicative seasonality. Results: infant mortality showed cyclical trend downward for 2012 is forecast between 3.6 and 5.4 rate. The main causes of death were perinatal conditions (49.4%), congenital malformations (30.9%), acute respiratory infections (10.2%) and sepsis (9.5%), which showed very unstable behavior. Postneonatal component predominated with downward trend in the last five years and infant mortality showed a seasonal pattern. Conclusions: infant mortality in the province has similar downward trend in the country but with peaks reveal inconsistent results.

Keywords : infant mortality; time series; stage.

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