Abstract

MEJIA VASQUEZ, Eduar Jamis  and  GONZALES CHAVEZ, Salome. Prediction of residential electric power consumption in the Cajamarca Region through Holt -Winters models. Energética [online]. 2019, vol.40, n.3, pp. 181-191.  Epub Sep 18, 2019. ISSN 1815-5901.

The objective of this work is to predict the consumption of residential electrical energy in the Cajamarca Region through Holt-Winters models. This predictive modeling procedure is useful for the short and medium term prediction of electricity sales. The forecast of electricity consumption is important in regional and national energy planning; from their results, the agents of the electric power market make more adequate decisions for their work. The Holt-Winters method was estimated for different smoothing constants, which includes methods for seasonal additive and multiplicative patterns. The value of the statistical tests of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was considered as the main estimator of the capacity of the model. The additive Holt-Winters model was selected as the best prediction model, with an average absolute percentage error of 1,70 and with estimated smoothing constants of 0,4.

Keywords : Electric power consumption; Holt-Winters model; prediction; residential; exponential smoothing.

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