Abstract

BEYRA-FERNANDEZ, Dayana María et al. Probable scenarios in the production of asphalt from heavy crude oil in Cuban refineries. Min. Geol. [online]. 2023, vol.39, n.2, pp. 108-117.  Epub June 30, 2023. ISSN 1993-8012.

The production of asphalt in Cuban refineries does not satisfy the national demand for road constructions and repairing projects. The purpose of this study was to outline the possible scenarios that could take place in the production of asphalt from the refining of heavy crude oil in Cuba. To achieve this, a methodology was used that combined work with experts and Godet's Strategic Prospective. From the application of the Multiplication Cross Impact Matrix method Applied to a Classification, three key variables (factors) were obtained that allowed the formulation of an equal number of hypotheses and the definition of eight possible scenarios. Using the Probabilized Cross Impact Matrix System (Smic Prob-Expert) method, the three most probable scenarios were specified: the most favorable, in which the three hypotheses are met; the least favorable, in which none of the three are met, and a scenario in which only the first hypothesis is met. According to these results, the most favorable scenario would be one in which raw materials for the refineries are guaranteed, a technological procedure that allows obtaining more asphalt with less cost and the technical availability of technological equipment.

Keywords : asphalt production; heavy crude oils; Cuban refineries; Strategic Prospective of Godet.

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