Abstract

GARCIA FIGAL, Alejandro  and  DE LA OLIVA DE CON, Fidel. A Method for Forecasting Euro-to-Dollar Exchange Rate. Cofin [online]. 2020, vol.14, n.1  Epub May 14, 2020. ISSN 2073-6061.

The foreign exchange market (Forex, FX, or currency market) is by far the largest market in the world. It averages $4 trillion in foreign exchange swaps per day, leading to the highest liquidity and profit margins worldwide. To forecast exchange rates is a recurrent theme in specialized literature, because it is of the utmost importance to international economic activities. However, it is difficult due to the high volatility in exchange rates, and complexity of data generating processes which govern their underlying dynamic behavior. Over the last few years, a wide variety of methods for forecasting exchange rates has been developed. Decision-makers face the challenge of forecasting them as accurately as possible, so they can reach ideal financial situations. This paper is aimed at suggesting a way of reliably forecasting euro-to-dollar exchange rate in the long term.

Keywords : macroeconomic indicators; foreign exchange market; exchange rates..

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