Abstract

INFANTE ROBLEJO, Ramiro  and  FIGUEREDO VARELA, Cándido. procedure for forecasting lost time in the Cuban sugar industry. Universidad y Sociedad [online]. 2021, vol.13, n.2, pp. 119-133.  Epub Apr 02, 2021. ISSN 2218-3620.

The purpose of this paper is to design a procedure to forecast the time lost as a planning integrating element. Due to the complexity in the productive processes in sugar industry, the application of planning traditional methods is a limiting factor to integrate the hints in the industrial production plan and decision taking. Due to this, the present procedure, with the application of forecasting techniques, provides theoretical and practical elements to make possible a correct integration of the main production hints and the efficiency in the planning process of sugar industry. To achieve this goal, the method of moving averages and the calculus of seasonal component to determine the weekly forecast of time lost in the industry out of the seasonal variation indices. Apart from that, it was demonstrated that the time lost in the industry integrated to the hints of efficiency can be used to have a weekly forecast about the quantity of sugar cane to process and the sugar to produce. Due to this the forecast of the time lost is considered a basic element to plan the industrial production in order to achieve a better use of sugar industry productive capacity.

Keywords : Forecast; lost time; moving averages; planning; sugar industry.

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