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Retos de la Dirección

On-line version ISSN 2306-9155

Abstract

RODRIGUEZ RODRIGUEZ, Giordano; ALVAREZ ALVAREZ, Néstor; RAMIREZ VARONA, Rafael Feliciano  and  ALMEIDA BORGES, Magaly. Evaluation of the Behavior of COVID-19 Pandemic, and Evolution Forecasting. Rev retos [online]. 2021, vol.15, n.2, pp. 108-121.  Epub Aug 28, 2021. ISSN 2306-9155.

Aim:

to propose indicators and procedures that assist in the evaluation, and prediction of the behavior of COVID-19 pandemic, using basic mathematical knowledge.

Methods and techniques:

search of information about the behavior of the pandemic in different scenarios, and the application of mathematical and statistical methods.

Main results:

indicators and procedures that contribute to the evaluation of the situation caused by COVID-19, and forecasting possible rises of infected cases and deaths, to help in decision-making.

Conclusions:

the indicators and procedures suggested contribute to the evaluation of the behavior of COVID-19 pandemic, and to short and mid-term forecasting of its behavior, for decision-making by sanitary and government authorities.

Keywords : COVID-19; health indicator; increase of daily infected cases; average increase; new lethality.

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