Abstract

HIDALGO-MAYO, Axel; HERNANDEZ-OROZCO, Nilo  and  PERIGO-ROMAN, Enrique. Return period of the coastal flooding and extreme events of wind and wave in northeast coast of Cuba. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2019, vol.25, n.2  Epub June 01, 2019. ISSN 2664-0880.

The objective of this paper is to calculate the return periods for coastal flood events, as well as the maximum wind and extreme wave on the north coast of the eastern region of Cuba. The main sources of information used were records from the coastal stations of Cabo Lucrecia and Punta Maisí, the chronology and classification of coastal floods for the cities of Gibara and Baracoa; as well as the use of the distribution of probability of Gumbel and Poisson, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test and X 2 for Goodness, as well as the method of annual maximum. The main results obtained were the return periods of coastal floods, as well as the maximum winds, and the significant height for the probabilities of 0.1, 0.05 and 0.02, and the corresponding confidence interval. It is concluded that the theoretical distributions used (Poisson for flood events, and Gumbel for extreme regimes of wind and wave) were suitable for the significance level of 5% and 1%, showing that for the cities of Baracoa and Gibara coastal floods events are expected once each two and four years respectively, while the periods of return for the extreme wind and wave regimes for Cabo Lucrecia and Punta de Maisi are similar, except the confidence intervals which are remarkably different due to a greater variability observed in Cabo Lucrecia.

Keywords : Return period; coastal floods; extreme events; Kolmogorov- Smirnov; Chi-Square goodness.

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