Abstract

VICHOT-LLANO, Alejandro; BEZANILLA-MORLOT, Arnoldo; MARTINEZ-CASTRO, Daniel  and  CENTELLA-ARTOLA, Abel. Present situation of the application of downscaling methods to the climate change projections in Central America and the Caribbean. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2019, vol.25, n.2  Epub June 01, 2019. ISSN 2664-0880.

A description of the progress and current status of the climate projection in the Central American and Caribbean region is presented. The characteristics of the global and regional climate models that reproduce the dynamics of the climate and allow simulating its future evolution based on the forcing of emission scenarios are briefly described. The review summarizes the main results obtained on the projections of the fields of precipitation, temperature and other regional climatic features, such as the midsummer drought, the Caribbean low-level jet and tropical cyclones. The results achieved up to the present allow affirming that, in spite of the existing uncertainties, most of the projections agree in the regional warming and in the reduction of the amounts of rain in the region, as well as the increase of some extreme events. The analysis of the set of results achieved to date suggests that the application of methods based on model ensembles allows to obtain more robust results in the climate projections.

Keywords : regional climate model; parameterization; climate extremes; scenarios; projections.

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