Abstract

ROURA-PEREZ, Pedro  and  DIAZ-SISTACHS, Dalia. Methodology of maximun wind and probabilities of affectation for hurricanes in Cuba. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2020, vol.26, n.4  Epub Dec 01, 2020. ISSN 2664-0880.

The greatest natural disasters of our country history has been associated with tropical cyclones. For this reason is very important for the Meteorological Institute, especially for the Clime Center due to the characterization of the meteorological variable maximum wind. For this reason a series of software’s were developed to provide these services thus obtaining relevant information as well as an economical gain and develop better research. Among the computational tools presented is an application called TkHURS.exe, to calculate return periods and the calculation of estimated hurricane frequencies, through the adjustment of a Poisson Model of the variable that counts the number of hurricanes per year that have affected Cuba. Other software is SEVECLIM.exe, which is used to calculate return periods of extreme climatological variables through different probability distributions, to obtain the model that best fit the data, to estimate the return periods, as well as the main statistics. With the model that best fit the data, it is possible to be closer to reality thus providing a better knowledge of the regime of the studied variable. The methodology proposed in this work provides a better understanding of the software’s utilization.

Keywords : hurricanes; extreme value; maximun wind; probability distributions and return periods.

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