Introduction:

The early diagnosis of vasooclusive crisis affecting sickle cell patients is currently an unresolved issue. In the reviewed literature no models have been found able to establish early risk indices of vasooclusive crisis for taking a timely therapeutic behavior in these patients.

Objective:

To establish risk indices in sickle cell patients based on the formulation of a predictive model of vasoocclusive state.

Methods:

Based on a cross-sectional case-control analytic study conducted at the Hematological Center of Santiago de Cuba, a predictive model of VOC status was formulated through a discriminant analysis. Dispersion statistics (mean and standard deviation) were used to establish risk indices based on it.

Results:

A predictive model of the state of VOC that included biomarkers of the redox state as significant predictors of it in sickle cell patients was formulated. The model supported the risk indices, stratified into 3 categories (lower, moderate and higher risk) that were assigned to the patients and allowed an adequate classification of them.

Conclusions:

The design of a predictive model of VOC and the establishment of risk indices in sickle cell patients allowed a better evaluation of them. The new diagnostic tool proposed in the study would be very useful in the Hematology services, by facilitating a better assessment of the sickle cell patient's condition and a timely prophylactic treatment that minimizes the complications associated with this state.

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