Introduction:

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a health problem; It is the third cause of death in the world, the exacerbation of this disease is responsible for the death of a high percentage of patients.

Objective:

To identify risk factors for mortality in hospitalized patients with exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Methods:

A cross-sectional, analytical investigation was carried out, based on the epidemiological design of correlational studies, at the “Camilo Cienfuegos” Provincial General Hospital of Sancti Spíritus, for two years. 335 patients were included. Sociodemographic and clinical variables were studied. To identify risk factors, a binary logistic regression model was developed using the Wald forward method. Mortality during hospitalization for exacerbated COPD was considered the dependent variable.

Results:

In the logistic regression model, the global percentage index that showed the relationship between what was predicted with respect to what was observed was 94, 6 %. The predictors used explained 86, 3 % of the variability of the dependent variable. Statistical analysis allowed us to identify the following risk factors for mortality: acute respiratory failure, diagnosis of pneumonia, pulmonary thromboembolism, age over 60 years, and smoking addiction.

Conclusions:

The identification of five mortality risk factors in patients hospitalized for exacerbated COPD, with the use of a predictive model to calculate the probability of death; contributes to the improvement of individualized medical care, in order to minimize the occurrence of fatal events in these patients.

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