Abstract

TIHUL, Praimnauth; HOMENAUTH, Oudho  and  ALFONSO, Pastor. Multicriteria geospatial analysis of the risk of occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Guyana. Rev Salud Anim. [online]. 2020, vol.42, n.1, e05.  Epub Apr 01, 2020. ISSN 0253-570X.

The objective of this investigation was to establish the geospatial risk of occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Guyana at the Neighborhood Democratic Council (NDC) level. Knowledge based multicriteria analysis was used taking into account various risk factors adjusted to the spatial resolution of the administrative districts of the country. First the risk of introduction of the causing virus was deduced and then the risk of exposure. From these two risks, by means of algebra of maps with the geographic information system QGIS version 2.18.10, the risk occurrence of disease was deduced. Equivalent proportions of districts with very high or high risk were highlighted, with 28 of 116 (24.1 %) in each category. The remainder of the districts in descending order of risk classes grouped as low and negligible in 34 (29.3 %) NDC. The regions that corresponded to high risk were: Barima-Waini with 2 out of 5 districts in this category; Pomeroon -Supenaam with 2 out of 7 districts; Essequibo Islands - West Demerara with 5 out of 19 districts (26 %); Demerara-Mahaica with 5 out of 19 districts (26 %); East Berbice - Corentyne with 8 out of 21 districts (38 %) and Upper Takutu - Upper Essequibo with 2 out of 8. The geospatial risk of occurrence of HPAI was not distributed evenly in Guyana, which presents an opportunity for prioritization strategies including the development and implementation of a risk-based surveillance system.

Keywords : highly pathogenic avian influenza; multicriteria disease analysis; risk; surveillance; prioritization.

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