Abstract

ABELLO UGALDE, Isidro Alfredo; GUINOVART DIAZ, Raúl  and  MORALES LEZCA, Wilfredo. The Basic SIR Model and Antiepidemic Policies in Public Health against COVID-19 in Cuba. Rev Cubana Salud Pública [online]. 2020, vol.46, suppl.1  Epub Nov 20, 2020. ISSN 1561-3127.

The basic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model of Kermack-McKendrick is a compartmental model in which the population under study is divided into epidemiological classes, in between which a flow is described. A robust health system that provides reliable data to the model and combined with coherent public health policies contributes to controlling the impacts of epidemic contingencies. Hence, the objective of this study is to apply the SIR model, without delving into the mathematical apparatus that accompanies it, to know the impact of COVID-19 in Cuba, with an emphasis on Havana, as the center of the epidemic in the country in the period from March 11 to July 16, 2020. To do this, the model is shown with variable coefficients over time, together with its usefulness as a dynamic model to make projections in epidemic situations. It is applied to specific local regions and its potentialities to analyze outbreaks are manifested by the onset of local events that are far from the foreseen predictions. This work is part of the efforts that, in all orders, the Cuban Ministry of Public Health has developed to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords : epidemiology; mathematical models; public health.

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