Abstract

GONZALEZ FERRER, Vielka; ALEGRET RODRIGUEZ, Milagros; GONZALEZ FERRER, Yainedy  and  MORENO ARIAS, Adrián. Internal validation of a predictive model created through a new methodology applicable in primary health care. Medicentro Electrónica [online]. 2015, vol.19, n.4, pp.218-224. ISSN 1029-3043.

Introduction: predictive models are support tools when it comes to decision making in public health. We should count on a specific form of internal validation, as a part of the development of these models, which allows us to quantify any optimism in their predictive performance. For this validation, the same group of study employed for its performance is used, and results are reproducible to the underlying population.Objective: to validate an index of orthodontic treatment need, created by means of a methodology, that uses the values of Cramer's V of each predictor in order to build the multivariate model. Methods: the model created with the training sample was applied to 181 students from a primary school of Santa Clara, and measures of discriminatory performance were calculated, such as, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, as well as, parameters were calculated from the confusion matrices. Models obtained by means of the new method and the logistic regression were also compared. Results: the new model exceeds logistic regression in all calculated parameters with values of sensitivity, specificity and validity of 79,3 %, 84,3 % and 81,2 %, respectively. Area under the curve was of 0,886. Conclusions: these results support the obtained index through Cramer ` V in order to be used in the underlying target population. The easiness of calculation and comprehension of this methodology are arguments in favor of its use for health decision - makers in primary care

Keywords : index of orthodontic treatment need; predictive value of tests; primary health care.

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