Abstract

COUTIN MARIE, Gisele  and  ZAMBRANO CARDENAS, Andrés. Seasonal performance of infant mortality in Cuba, 1987- 2004. Rev Cubana Hig Epidemiol [online]. 2006, vol.44, n.2, pp. 0-0. ISSN 1561-3003.

Mortality presents a variable seasonal performance in almost every region of the world, although their patterns change a lot with the different territories and the causes of death. It has been associated with the variations resulting from climate changes and with several environmental factors. A number of studies has described a high number of deaths in winter time, mainly due to respiratory diseases, acute myocardial infarct and cerebrovascular diseases whereas the increase of the mortality rate from diarrheal illnesses is more common in summer time. Since 19th century, the seasonal variation of mortality is known in Cuba and from that date on, excessive mortality rates in the warmest months, most of deaths occurring in the elderly and small children, have been observed; however, there are so far no studies that deepen into this issue. This paper presented the results of a descriptive research work through time series analysis techniques in order to identify and describe the seasonal performance of infant mortality and of some selected causes of death in the 1987-2005 period; and also to obtain forecasts for the year 2006. Among the most striking results were the detection of seasonal variation in the infant mortality series of the summer time, mainly in July, and a variable seasonal performance for the various causes of death.

Keywords : Infant mortality; seasonal variation; time series; ARIMA modeling.

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