Abstract

BLANCO HERNANDEZ, Neylim; JULIA GARCIA MILIAN, Ana  and  COUTIN MARIE, Gisele. Hepatitis A in "Mártires de Calabazar" healt area, 1989-2006. Rev Cubana Hig Epidemiol [online]. 2009, vol.47, n.2. ISSN 0253-1751.

A observational, descriptive and retrospective study was conducted related to hepatitis A in "Mártires de Calabazar" health area from January, 2989 to December, 2006 to characterize its behavior and to predict its incidence during 2007 year. The information source was the disease registers of obligatory declaration (ODD) corresponding to study disease and the yearly chronological series from the statistical file of polyclinic. For prognosis obtaining exponential isolation method was used with three parameters of Econometric Views software. Results achieved allow conclude that incidence of hepatitis A in "Mártires de Calabazar" Polyclinic during 1989-2006 had cyclical fluctuations and a marked stagnation during the third trimester of year; it showed a male sex predominance and in aged between 5 and 14 where the Parajón parcel had the great zonal incidence during the study period. The estimated quarterly prognosis for 2007 was similar to that of the pattern described of this disease in our health area.

Keywords : Hepatitis A; temporary series; prognosis.

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