Abstract

LOPEZ HUNG, Eduardo  and  JOA TRIAY, Lai Gen. Markov chains applied to the analyzis of the progress of research projets. RCIM [online]. 2017, vol.9, n.1, pp.44-51. ISSN 1684-1859.

Modern management tools require support from different branches of science to help the decision-making process, such as Applied Mathematics. In this context, random variables with change over time, and that can be represented by quantitative models appear. When these models in the present state of these variables summarizes all the previous information to describe how they will behave in the future, it is said that we are in the presence of a Markov chain; an efficient tool for the analysis of processes of this nature, such as the execution of research projects, which is of great importance in the management of science and technological innovation; key result area at any university. In the Faculty of Technology, University of Medical Sciences of Santiago de Cuba, the analysis of the implementation of research projects was considered as a Markov chain, defining the different states through which can be a project and the odds of this is in a certain state from the state it was. And support elements that enable decision-making in the short and long term, from historical data in the period 2013 - 2015 were determined, related to the average number of inspections to a project, the probability of a project likely to close, etc.; allowing to predict in terms of probabilities the status of this subsystem in the future.

Keywords : research projects; Markov chains; stochastic approach; quantitative methods; applied mathematics.

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