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Cuban Journal of Agricultural Science

Print version ISSN 0864-0408On-line version ISSN 2079-3480

Abstract

ALVAREZ-ADAN, A.; FEBLES, G.  and  FERNANDEZ, J. M.. Space distribution of Pennisetum purpureum, according to projections for climate change in Cuba. Cuban J. Agric. Sci. [online]. 2016, vol.50, n.2, pp.291-303. ISSN 0864-0408.

In order to determine the future space distribution of Pennisetum purpureum, according to projections of climate change for Cuba, with the purpose of contributing to take proper decisions regarding future management of this species and to establish efficient regulations for its adaptation to the influence of climate change, a general methodology of analysis was designed that combined the information of mean annual temperature and precipitation, type of soil, pH, and irrigation with the implementation of space analysis operations: filtration and map superposition to achieve space distribution. Therefore, daily outputs of the General Circulation Model Echan4 were used with forcing of emission scenarios A2 and B2, for the analysis of future climates. It was confirmed that, according to soil potential, only 34% of Cuban territory may be used for the cultivation of the studied species. In addition, there was a tendency to decrease the areas with potential of precipitation-temperature, favorable for the development and growth of this species. A2 scenario was the most critical. Negative anomalies increased up to 64 and 59% for A2 and B2, respectively. It is concluded that integration of physical, climate and soil factors allowed the identification of potentially usable areas for cultivation and development of this species

Keywords : future climates; Pennisetum purpureum; space distribution.

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