Abstract

HERNANDEZ-DIAZ, Neysis; YELANDY-LEYVA, Maikel  and  CUZA-GARCIA, Betsy. Causal Models for Risk Management. Rev cuba cienc informat [online]. 2013, vol.7, n.4, pp. 58-74. ISSN 2227-1899.

In this work a study about the process of risk management in major schools in the world. The project management tools worldwide highlights the need to redefine risk management processes. From the information obtained it is proposed the use of causal models for risk analysis based on information from the project or company, say risks and the influence thereof on the costs, human capital and project requirements and detect the damages of a number of tasks without tribute to the development of the project. A study on the use of causal models as knowledge representation techniques causal, among which are the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (DCM) and Bayesian networks, with the most favorable MCD technique to use because it allows modeling the risk information without having a knowledge base either itemize.

Keywords : fuzzy cognitive maps; projects; quantitative analysis; risk; risk management.

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